The European Union's economy is projected to grow by 1.1% this year, according to the European Commission's spring forecast. The eurozone is expected to grow by 0.9%, despite global economic uncertainty and trade tensions. A slightly stronger growth is anticipated for next year, with 1.5% in the EU and 1.4% in the eurozone.
'The EU economy shows resilience amid high trade tensions and increasing global uncertainty. But we must not be complacent,' said EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis (Economy). Due to many risks to the economy and trade, 'the EU must take decisive measures to stimulate our competitiveness.'
The growth, already evident in the last quarter of 2024, is mainly due to strong domestic demand. The forecast is based on several assumptions, including that the US import tariffs for the EU remain at the currently paused 10%. Current tariffs for steel, aluminum, and cars at 25% have been taken into account.
Economic growth outside the EU is now estimated at 3.2% for this year and next. Last autumn, growth was projected at 3.6%. The downward revision is mainly due to worsened prospects for both the US and China. Global trade is slowing even more. Inflation in the eurozone is expected to decrease to an average of 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. In the EU, inflation will be just under 2% in 2026. In the Netherlands, inflation is expected to be 3% and 2% in those years.
For the Netherlands, the European Commission expects economic growth of 1.3% this year. Next year, growth will be slightly lower at 1.2%, which is higher than the forecast for the entire eurozone in 2025 (0.9%). In 2026, Dutch growth will be lower than the eurozone's expected 1.4%.