The 90-day tariff pause between the United States and China is highly likely to be substantially extended, according to Corné van Zeijl, analyst and strategist at Cardano. 'Under Trump 1.0, similar negotiations took two years—it seems extremely optimistic to think it can be done in 90 days now,' he said in BNR Beursweek. 'An extension is probable.'
Interestingly, the U.S. trade deficit has actually widened since Trump's tariff war, Van Zeijl noted. 'This led to a surge in imports from China to the U.S. in the first quarter, as businesses rushed to stock up before tariffs took effect. This will cause significant distortions in economic data, making it nearly impossible to interpret in the coming quarters.'
Investors should focus on how the market prices progress in trade talks, Van Zeijl advised. 'The market is pricing this as if all problems are solved, but I wonder if that’s justified. It’s still 90 days, and it’s still Trump—you never know how it ends.'